MAT Palestras - Análise

Four-tier response system and spatial propagation of COVID-19 in China by a network model

A fim de investigar a eficácia das restrições de bloqueio e distanciamento social, que têm sido amplamente realizadas como escolha política para conter a pandemia de COVID-19 em andamento em todo o mundo, formulamos e discutimos um sistema de rede em estágios e ponderados com base em um modelo epidemiológico SEAIR clássico.
Zhigui Lin - Yangzhou University em 08/04/2022

Abstract

In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and weighted network system based on a classical SEAIR epidemiological model. Five stages have been taken into consideration according to four-tier response to Public Health Crisis, which comes from the National Contingency Plan in China. Staggered basic reproduction num- ber has been derived and we evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing policies under different scenarios among 19 cities/regions in mainland China. Further, we estimate the infection risk associated with the sequential release based on population mobility between cities and the intensity of some non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reveal that Level I public health emergency response is necessary for high-risk cities, which can flatten the COVID-19 curve effectively and quickly. Moreover, properly designed staggered-release policies are extremely significant for the prevention and con- trol of COVID-19, furthermore, beneficial to economic activities and social stability and development.

Local e Data

Tema: Four-tier response system and spatial propagation of COVID-19 in China by a network model
Palestrante: Zhigui Lin - Yangzhou University
Data: 08/04/2022