Título:  The epidemic mathematical models and the spatial-temporal risk index

Palestrante:  Zhigui Lin Yangzhou University-China

Abstract.:       

In this talk, a diffusion SIS model is proposed to study the spatial spreading of virus. The free boundary is introduced to describe the spreading front of the infected interval. To check the effect of spatial heterogeneity and habitat characteristic on the spreading of the virus, the basic reproduction number RN0 and the spatial-temporal risk index RF0 (t) are given for the model in a bounded environment with no flux and in a expanding environment, respectively. Our results show that the virus will spread in the high-risk habitat; In a low-risk habitat, small initial infected habitat, small initial numbers of the virus and fast diffusion are beneficial for the virus to vanish. When the virus spreads in the whole habitat, the asymptotic spreading speed is given.